morning in california is a re-cap of last night’s Anaheim Ducks game and how various Norfolk Admirals prospects did. today: last night’s ugly loss to the Avs.
Confession: I loved advanced stats, or as the hockey world has come to call them, “#fancystats”. These mathematical specifications go beyond outdated notions of thinking and help better illuminate a player or team’s performance. I’m going to try to write today’s MiC with some stats from the fantastic new website, ExtraSkater. Please allow me to fumble around a bit.
From the moment Francois Beauchemin‘s errant pass lead to a Ryan O’Reilly breakaway goal, thinks looked bleak for the Ducks. It got much, much worse. (HT: @seangentille) Fear not Ducks, fans: this team will not lose every game 6-1 (probably) and actually had a decent showing, offensively.
Now, the best way to explain the most basic stance of advanced stats is this: more shots are better. If you take more shots, your team has the puck more often, and more shots lead to more opportunities for goals. The best situation to measure a team in is 5v5 close,(* this is a handy glossary. Read over it if you are unfamiliar) or when both teams are at even strength and within a goal of each other.
Remember, we’re talking Even Strength (ES) goals. (Note to yourself that we’re going over 1 game in an 82 game schedule, as well). Last night’s game was Colorado 6, Anaheim 1 with two avalanche power play goals. Thus, we’ve got four even strength goals for the Avs, and one for the Ducks. Now we can go a bit further.
Both teams (keep that link open in another tab) played 47.8 minutes of just 5v5 hockey. In this area of play, the Ducks dominated Shots, Corsi, Fenwick, everything but came up short, 3-1. Luck is unfortunate, sometimes.
Now, of those 47.8 minutes, the teams played 21.3 minutes of 5v5 close.. Anaheim had the slight edge in Corsi and Fenwick, with the Avs a slight favorite in shots. Unfortunately none of those shots went in for the Ducks. Why? Sometimes a team just has bad luck and get shots in. It happens. If Anaheim can continue to mount shots in 5v5 close situations, and do the basic stuff right like avoid bad turnovers, they should win more games than they lose. Thankfully, it’s game 1 of an 82 season, so 81 more chances to Get Lucky.
From The Grove
I’m not orange former but there’s gotta be seeds and here’s how Norfolk’s seeds did for the Orange County hockey team.
F Pat Maroon
Pat Maroon got first line time last night, for a bit anyway! The big guy finished with 9:50 of ice time (least on the team), a shot, and a 5 for fighting. Not an auspicious debut, to say the least.
D Sami Vatanen
The Finnish D-man saw 18:46 of game action, added 3 shots to the game, and saw some time on the power play. Had positive Corsi and Fenwick numbers, as well.
F Kyle Palmieri
While I’m going to focus on fringe players, Palmieri played enough games for the Ads last season to include him in today’s post. Palmieri played 13:32 and added 4 shots last night. His Corsi for and against were both 11 last night.
F Peter Holland and D Hampus Lindholm were both scratched; F Emerson Etem is still on IR.
Now, what you came for, Admirals news! AHL rosters are due today. I’ll try to have something up when that happens.